South Africa - headed towards crisis before the 2010 World Cup?

Thabo Mbeki, President of South Africa since 1999, has resigned from his post, due to a withdrawal of support from his party, the African National Congress, led by rival Jacob Zuma. South Africa has been in a period of conservative growth, with Mbeki steadfastly adhering to free market principles. With him out of power, what will the next presidency bring? Mbeki has been replaced by Kgalema Molanthe, whose main task will be healing the rift between the two camps within the ANC. Equally important is his promise to continue of the economic policies of his predecessor. Failure on either front could be catastrophic.

As daunting as his responsiblity may seem, it is likely that he is only warming the seat for Jacob Zuma. Though he's been on trial on charges of corruption, he is widely regarded as the favorite to win the presidency in the election next year. Despite the economic growth in South Africa under the watch of Mbeki, the tide has not lifted all boats. Unemployment is still relatively high, creating a broad audience for Zuma's populist message. Zuma, too, has promised to continue Mbeki's policies, but he has amassed his support by promising redistribution of wealth and property to the black population.

As fair as this may seem, we must look to the example of Zimbabwe to see how redistribution of economic power to those unprepared for the responsibility can prove devastating. That country was once the breadbasket of Africa now suffers from widespread unemployment, a collapsed economy, and an inflation rate over 11 mil% (!). The Zimbabwan dictator, Robert Mugabe, led a program of redistribution, seizing the farms that formed the backbone of the economy from white owners, and handing control over to blacks. The inexperience of these new owners, combined with a lack of support from an international community outraged over the Mugabe's actions, squandered the prosperity that this country once enjoyed. Zuma and the ANC must be careful to learn the lessons of its humbled neighbor.

One final note about Mbeki. He recently brokered a power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe, between Mugabe and the man widely believed to be the true winner of the recent presidential election, Morgan Tsvangirai. As you may have read, the elections were bitterly contested, with Mugabe using force to intimidate the opposition and voters into submission. Tsvangirai ended up bowing out of the race, even though the he had the most votes in the election. Now that Mbeki does not have the power of South Africa's presidency, what happens to the power-sharing deal? Will the glimmer of hope for Zimbabwe be extinguished?

Let's hope that it will be okay to go to the World Cup in 2010.